Extremely hot days can rise 22 times in Delhi for 2100

NEW DELHI: If the high emission of greenhouse gases continues without decreasing, the number of extremely hot days in Delhi will increase 22 times by 2100, shows a study by the Climate Impact Laboratory in collaboration with the Tata Development Center in the University of Chicago

While the capital on average registers three extremely hot days from now on, future citizens will have to suffer up to 67 days each year. On an extremely hot day, the temperature remains at more than 35 degrees Celsius throughout the day.

Without control over greenhouse gas emissions, India could be seeing an average annual temperature increase of 4 degrees Celsius and the average number of 'extremely hot days' more than eight times a year from 5.1 in 2010 to 42.8 in 2100, shows The study published on Thursday.

With the increase in the number of extremely hot days, 16 of the 37 states and territories of the Union are projected to get hotter than Punjab, which is currently the hottest state in India. Punjab is expected to continue to be the hottest state in India in 2100, with an average annual temperature of around 36 ° C, followed by Haryana and Delhi.

Commenting on the findings of the report, Union Minister Jal Shakti, Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, said: Climate change is upon us. We see it in the form of erratic monsoons, prolonged droughts and heat waves. All this exacerbates several problems that we are already dealing with. with, including water stress. As part of the multiple approach, we are calling for the rejuvenation of traditional water bodies, talking about incentivizing crops that require less water and also promoting participatory groundwater management, all of which will help build India's resistance to climate change. .

However, Odisha is expected to top the list when it comes to the largest increase in the number of extremely hot days, from 1.62 in 2010 to 48.05 in 2100. Haryana (20 times), Punjab (17 times) and Rajasthan (seven times ) will not be much better, the study showed. Punjab is projected to experience 85 extremely hot days, the most hot days among all states.

The study considered two different scenarios to estimate the temperature rise, the increase in the number of extremely hot days and the risk of mortality.

In the first scenario (CPR 4.5), it was assumed that carbon emissions will peak around 2040, and by 2100, the equivalent concentration of atmospheric CO2 will begin to decline again, reaching 540 ppm. In the second scenario (CPR 8.5), it was assumed that emissions will continue to increase throughout the 21st century and that the equivalent concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will reach 940 ppm by 2100.

In general, the average annual temperatures in India are also projected to rise from approximately 24 ° C to 28 ° C by the end of the century under a continuous high-emission scenario. Below, it is projected that the Himalayan states will see the greatest increase in average summer temperatures: Jammu and Kashmir (+ 5.1 ° C), Himachal Pradesh (+ 4.4 ° C) and Uttarakhand (+ 4.1 ° C).

By 2100, Meghalaya (28.3 ° C) could be hotter than Maharashtra is currently (28.0 ° C). Similarly, by 2100, Arunachal Pradesh (27.2 ° C) could be as hot as Goa (27.5 ° C) today.