COLUMN: the world travel revolution challenges energy and climate objectives: Kemp

(Repeat the column that was executed on Thursday, without changes) * Chartbook: https://tmsnrt.rs/34cWEPy By John Kemp LONDON, Oct. 31 (Reuters) - Travel and tourism are one of the largest and fastest growing industries in the world, and the number of leisure travelers worldwide will increase tremendously in the coming decades as more families reach The middle class status for the first time. Traveling to learn more about the world and experience new places seems to be a basic human instinct; All modern societies show a growing demand for travel, largely for leisure, as income increases and transportation improves. Pleasure trips are intended to make one of the greatest contributions to the increase in energy consumption and carbon emissions until 2050, with much of the increase concentrated in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. International air travel will contribute especially to emissions because aviation consumes a lot of energy and in the foreseeable future there are no low-carbon alternatives to rely on jet fuel. MODERN COMPANIES Before the modern era, pleasure trips, or even any trip, were difficult, expensive and rare for the majority of the population. Governments advised against occasional travel due to the potential threat to social and political stability; the travelers were seen almost universally with suspicion. In Britain, before about 1700, almost the only long-distance travelers on the roads were aristocrats, soldiers, judges, priests and tax collectors, along with a small number of sailors sailing along the coastal sea routes. The law prohibited non-essential travel. Anyone who is outside his parish without a legal reason could be punished for wandering, beating and forced to return (Wanderers and homeless in England, 1598-1664, Slack, 1974). Similar restrictions were introduced to the casual movement in most European and Asian countries to maintain political control and economic stability. The majority of the population traveled little, rarely saw neighboring villages, much less the nearest commercial city (Heat, energy and light: revolutions in energy services, Fouquet, 2008). But the improvement of transport during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, with a strong investment first in roads and then in canals and railroads, triggered a tremendous increase in personal mobility. Part of that increase in travel was related to work, as economies became more integrated, with local markets and industries gradually replaced by regional and then national markets. But much of the increase in road and then rail travel was more discretionary and reflected the increase in revenue and greater travel opportunities created by more advanced technology. MOBILITY REVOLUTION The introduction of toll trusts, charging tolls to build and maintain roads, on the main roads led to a significant improvement in the quality of Britain's roads since the mid-18th century. The result was a rapid and sustained increase in long-distance intercity travel for the transport of goods, but more especially for passengers (Toll Trusts and the transport revolution in 18th-century England, Bogart, 2004). Interurban coaching services became more frequent and faster: the number of passenger services to and from London quadrupled between 1760 and 1780 and then doubled again in 1790. Passenger services increased much faster than freight, at least in the first decades, an indication of the cumulative desire to travel that was released once transport became easier and cheaper. The same pattern was repeated a century later with the advent of railroads, which quickly replaced horse-drawn wagons as the dominant mode of passenger transport for trips of more than a few miles. The growth of rail traffic was led by passengers instead of cargo, most of them from relatively low-income groups that had not traveled much previously (https://tmsnrt.rs/34cWEPy). Contrary to the original expectation, the opening of Britain's first railways had a more immediate impact on the passenger travel pattern than on freight traffic, according to historian Philip Bagwell. With very few exceptions, every time a new line was opened to traffic there was a dramatic increase in the number of people traveling along the route served compared to the numbers that previously used the road. After the opening of the Newcastle and Carlisle railways ... eleven times more people traveled by train than before by coach (The transport revolution since 1770, Bagwell, 1974). Passenger train travel increased from 5 million in 1838 to 100 million in 1854, 500 million in 1876 and one billion in 1897, an increase of 200 times in 60 years (British historical statistics, Mitchell, 2011). The increase in revenue and improvements in the transport system triggered a revolutionary increase in personal mobility in Britain between 1750 and 1900. In the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, the mobility revolution continued with the introduction of the automobile and then international air travel. The number of miles traveled by passengers increased from 3 million in 1925 to 50 million in 1937, 500 million in 1948, one billion in 1951, 10 billion in 1969 and 31 billion in 1980. International travel continues to increase. Travelers from the United Kingdom made almost 72 million visits abroad in 2018, compared to 51 million in 1998 and 29 million in 1988. TRAVEL PEN IN CHINA Britain's mobility revolution has been matched or surpassed in all the advanced economies of Europe, North America, Japan and Australasia. Now the mobility revolution is spreading to China and other rapidly developing economies in Asia and around the world as hundreds of millions more people emerge from poverty and the middle class expands. China's rail passenger traffic has been growing at a compound annual average rate of more than 6% since 1990, while air travel has skyrocketed at almost 15% per year. China's passenger rail traffic has doubled every 12 years, while passenger air traffic has doubled every five years, according to government data. Massive investment in rail networks, including long-distance high-speed systems, as well as airports and airplanes, has increased capacity, reduced travel times and encouraged an increase in internal travel, largely related to leisure . China's rail network had grown to 127,000 kilometers (78,914 miles) in 2017, compared to 78,000 kilometers in 2007 and 66,000 kilometers in 1997, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The high-speed rail network has grown from less than 1,000 kilometers in 2008 to more than 25,000 kilometers in 2017 (Annual Statistical Yearbook, NBS, 2018). Air routes have quadrupled since the beginning of the century, while the number of aircraft in use has increased fivefold. The growth of foreign travel by the Chinese middle class is also skyrocketing. China's residents made 143 million trips abroad in 2017, compared to 41 million in 2007 and 5 million in 1997, according to the World Tourism Organization. AFTER CHINA ... China's mobility revolution is far from complete. And behind China there are other important nations in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, where the revolution has just begun. Residents of India made only 26 million trips abroad in 2018 compared to 70 million in the United Kingdom and 93 million in the United States. Internal travel through most developing economies is still held back by the lack of quality roads, limited rail capacity and affordability. But internal and external travel is beginning to grow as revenues increase and transport systems slowly improve, and the trend will accelerate in the coming decades. The increase in the demand for transport for leisure, as well as business and freight trips, poses a great challenge for both energy and climate policy. Policy makers must find a way to decarbonize the energy system and curb emissions while accommodating the huge growth in travel demand, as well as other services such as air conditioning. The world travel revolution underscores how difficult it will be to meet the emission targets and meet the growing aspirations of tourism and leisure. Related columns: - Increased energy use to boost CO2 well above the target until 2050 (Reuters, September 27) - Climate change goals are escaping scope (Reuters, April 16) - The persistent role of coal complicates climate change efforts (Reuters, December 6, 2018) (Susan Fenton Edition) This story has not been edited by The Times of India and is automatically generated from a syndicated feed to which we subscribe. (This story has not been edited by timesofindia.com and is automatically generated from a syndicated feed to which we subscribe.)

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