Karnataka political crisis: 4 possible scenarios.
NEW DELHI: The crisis continued on Wednesday with him and the JD (S) moving to the Supreme Court claiming that the speaker of the assembly had abandoned his constitutional duty and was deliberately taking time to accept his resignations.
The decision came after speaker KR Ramesh Kumar said on Tuesday it would take at least six days to investigate the resignations of the 13 rebel MLAs, giving a respite to the beleaguered Congress-JD (S) government.
The mid-point in the 224-member House is 113. In addition to the 13 MLA of rebels, the MLA of the suspended Congress Roshan Baig has also resigned, though he claims that he is not joining the rebels. This means that if the resignations of the 14 MLA are accepted, including Baig, the total of the JD-Congress (S) would be reduced to 102. Meanwhile, for the BJP, with the support of the two independent MLAs and the only BSP MLA , its number would increase to 108.
WHAT COULD HAPPEN
SCENARIO 1: Congreso-JD (S) survives
Four or five of the 13 rebel MLAs return to the coalition group by withdrawing their resignations and accepting cabinet positions. If this is not enough, JD (S) and Congress could write an inverse poaching operation so that four or five BJP MLAs resign.
SCENARIO 2: BJP returns to power
If the speaker accepts the resignations of the rebels, the BJP, with 108 MLA (including 2 independent MLAs and BSP MLA) will be able to form the government. The strength of the coalition would be reduced to 102 (including Baig). With 13 vacancies, half of the qualification in the assembly would fall to 106 and the governor could invite the BJP to form the government.
SCENARIO 3: SC intervenes
With 10 MLA rebels from Karnataka of Congress and the JD (S) coalition moving to the Supreme Court claiming that the speaker has not deliberately accepted their resignations, SC can ask the speaker to make a decision sooner. You could even request a floor test in the assembly.
SCENARIO 4: Fresh elections
If the resignations of the rebels are accepted and the two independent MLAs and BSP MLA refuse to support the BJP (keeping it at 105), the governor may recommend the president's government. he may be asked to remain the acting interim minister until the elections are held, or the governor directs the state until the polls are held.