The influential Covid-19 model projects more than 134,000 deaths in the US. USA At the beginning of August
WASHINGTON: an influential model produced by the University of Washington revised its projections, estimating more than 134,000 COVID-19 deaths in the United States until August.
The model, from the and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington , projected 134,475 COVID-19 deaths by August 4 on Monday, Xinhua news agency reported.
These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, represent the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporate the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies on transmission dynamics, the IHME said in a statement. .
New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Michigan are projected to have the highest cumulative COVID-19 death tolls until August.
While these states are generally among those with the highest tolls forecast by COVID-19, each of its cumulative death projections has increased by at least 2,000, the IHME said.
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This is in part due to updates to death data and modeling approaches, with the latter now estimating longer epidemic spikes and slower downward trajectories after those spikes in many places, the statement said.
The updated modelling approach indicates that the United States appears to be in a prolonged epidemic peak, averaging near or over 2,000 predicted COVID-19 deaths a day for the last few weeks, according to the IHME.
After weeks of shutdown measures, many states of the United States have begun to slowly open up. But health experts have expressed concern that premature opening could lead to a spike in new COVID-19 infections.