Delayed peak lock by one month in late June: study
CALCUTTA: The infection may peak at the end of June nationwide, a study by the Calcutta-based Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science (IACS) showed.
He also says the peak itself could be cut in half with more testing and tight locks in specific areas. The study also suggests that the blockage has successfully delayed the spike by one month, giving us more time to deal with the logistics of treatment.
The bio-computational modeling study aims to predict the progress of Covid-19 in India and to assess the impact of blockade by modifying infection rates and obtaining the best and worst case scenarios.
Following the trend of the model curve and the effective reproduction number (2.2), more than 1.5 lakh would become infected at the peak, which could occur in late June.
The effective breeding number indicates how many people a Covid-19 positive person is currently infecting, on average. The number 2.2 means that 220 people are infected by 100 people. But the model has a silver lining: with appropriate measures (such as effective testing and better management of the blockage), the number of infections can drop to 0.7 lakh in late June, even if the breeding number remains the same.
The study predicts that the peak would have appeared in late May in the absence of a blockage.