The pandemic will exist for at least 18-24 months, according to a US report. USA
WASHINGTON: The new coronavirus will exist for at least 18 to 24 months under any circumstances, according to a new US report. The US, which projects that it will only begin to fade away when approximately two-thirds of the population is infected and collective immunity sets in.
The report comes even as President Trump on Thursday announced his intention to seek reparations of up to $ 1 trillion from Beijing, claiming he has a high degree of confidence in the new lab-originated coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The twin developments undermined any expectation that life, and international relations, will return to the days before 2020 any time soon.
The report of the Infectious Disease Policy and Research Center (CIDRAP) released Thursday, based on the study of previous pandemics, presents three possibilities, none of which see an immediate disappearance of the coronavirus. In the first scenario, the pandemic will continue in a series of peaks and valleys, gradually decreasing over time until it is extinguished in 2021. The occurrence of these waves may vary geographically and may depend on the mitigation measures implemented and how they are alleviated, points out the report, noting that the scenario could require the periodic reinstitution and subsequent relaxation of mitigation measures in the next 1 to 2 years.
In the second, worst-case scenario, the report says the current outbreak will be overshadowed by a much larger spike in this year's fall or winter in echoes of the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic. Smaller spikes will follow before the infection rate is reduced with more blocking measures. The best case scenario projects slow combustion, with the pandemic gradually disappearing with smaller and smaller peaks from now until 2022.
Whichever scenario the pandemic follows (assuming at least some level of ongoing mitigation measures), we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant activity, with hot spots appearing periodically in various geographic areas, he warns. the report, urging the government to level with the public that the pandemic will not end soon and to prepare for the worst case scenario, in which there is no vaccine available and collective immunity has not been met this year.
The sobering assessment occurred even when many states in the US USA Mitigation measures began to relax and federal norms of social distancing ended, despite the fact that coronavirus cases and deaths increased in places with infections as soon as the foot was removed from the confinement. After falling to less than 1,500 deaths per day last weekend, the daily number of coronaviruses in the US USA Across the country, it has shot up more than 2,300 a day on each of the past three days, with a total count of 64,000 on Friday. A model from the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University now predicts that 100,000 Americans will have died of COVID-19 in late summer.
The number of victims still on the rise, the economic anguish that has destroyed 30 million jobs (it is now giving rise to the scarcity of meat throughout the country) and the incessant criticism of his handling of the entire crisis, are pushing President Trump to an increasingly harsh stance towards China. On Thursday, Trump directly held Beijing responsible for the pandemic, indicating that Washington will now consider seeking reparations from China.
Contradictory views of the United States Intelligence Committee that it has not been assessed whether the outbreak started through contact with infected animals or was the result of a laboratory accident in Wuhan and that it continues to rigorously examine the problem, Trump said he has seen evidence that gives him a high degree of confidence, the new coronavirus originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. What gives you a high degree of confidence that this originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology? asked a journalist. I can't tell you that, I'm not allowed to tell you, Trump replied.
The exchange was followed by leaks from the administration and congressional sources that Washington is considering a series of drastic steps, ranging from stripping China of the sovereign immunity that foreign nations enjoy in US courts. USA (Which will allow the US government or victims to sue Beijing for damages) on the embargo or default on the United States' debts to China.
However, Trump indicated that he is in favor of a more moderate approach, such as imposing massive tariffs on Chinese imports and ending the flight of manufacturing jobs into the country. You know you have the dollar to protect. We want to protect the sanctity of the dollar ... it is the largest currency in the history of the world, Trump said, dismissing the idea of tightening China in American debt, a step that many experts have warned will torpedo the global financial system. .