Assam's Covid-19 risk analysis and worst case scenarios

GUWAHATI: A Covid-19 risk analysis has placed 46% of the state's 3.65 million rupees population in the most vulnerable group, comprising 21.88 lakh of older people and 1.46 million children under 18 years of age.

The disaster management authority has put in place a response plan, which is based on a risk analysis and assumed possible non-clinical worst-case scenarios, including the likely massive spread of the disease, the deterioration of the situation of law and order, food shortages, social discrimination and even pressure on the land for the management of bodies due to increased mortality.

The Strategic Response Plan for Covid-2019 prepared by the authority states, ... rapid changes may face Assam and NE very soon. The response plan has been developed for a coordinated multi-stakeholder response at the state, district and local levels to streamline and better structure ASDMA and DDMA response actions to support multiple departments to ensure response actions of a non-nature nature. medical and non-pharmaceutical for prevention and containment of COVID-19 in the state of Assam.

The authority has conducted a risk analysis and established definitions of certain possible worst-case non-clinical scenarios before developing the response plan to deliver the anticipated response as the situation develops.

In addition, older people have been found to be more vulnerable and susceptible to COVID-19. In addition, other groups, such as children and people with other diseases, are also vulnerable. If we consider the most vulnerable group of people in the state, Assam has approximately 21.88 lakh of people older/older than 60 years (6%) and around 1.46 million rupees would be children under 18 (40% of the total), according to El risk analysis.

One of the most unfavorable non-clinical scenarios is mass dispersal and despite the best prevention measures, many positive cases can arise in the state of people who have traveled from various places affected by COVID-19 (inside and outside the country) ).

In a mass spread scenario, the need and demand for quarantine will increase multiple times and a situation may arise to convert any available facility at the district and sub-district level to quarantine facilities and this may increase the need to identify and provision work and supplies.

Furthermore, “in a situation of such massive spread, the demand for health services can increase multiple times. This can create demand for transitional health facilities outside of recognized health care facilities for which logistics, manpower and other resources will be required, ”states the response plan.

The situation of law and order would also be concerned in the worst situation and In a situation of greater spread and quarantine, the situation of law and order may deteriorate with the requirement of stricter and extraordinary agreements in quarantine facilities, crowd management in hospitals, grooming and logistics transportation and the like.

In a confinement situation, marginalized communities, including wage earners, the broader informal sector workforce, farmers, domestic workers, etc., may be left in a food insecure situation, is another of the worst assumptions. of the cases.

The plan states: To further contain the spread, the blockade may become the only option available that may result in a shortage of essential products for the masses. It also assumes that in such a scenario, the possibilities of social exclusion and discrimination with the families of people affected by COVID-19 during/after quarantine can also create an alarming situation that limits access to common goods and support systems. community.

In the worst case, the death rate may also rise, leading to increased demand for land and resources to manage the bodies while respecting religious sentiments, the plan adds.

The authority also assumed another scenario of possible interaction of flood, erosion and COVID-19 response under which social distancing can become a challenging issue in a scenario of mass displacement or in a relief camp that may further aggravate the spread of the infection .