Car sales in India will stabilize in 2020 thanks to stimulus measures and discounts: Moody's
NEW DELHI: Car sales India is expected to be relatively flat this year after falling 11.8 percent in 2019 amid the slowdown in economic growth, according to Moody Investor Service
The rating agency also lowered its global sales forecast as the coronavirus The outbreak reduces demand and disrupts self-powered supply chains.
We hope indian car sales to rise 0.5 per cent in 2020, supported by stimulus measures, discounts on new cars that do not comply with Bharat Stage VI (BS VI) emission norms, which will take effect in April," the ratings agency said in a statement.
But weak consumer demand and tight liquidity will likely limit any improvement in car sales this year, it added.
"In 2021, we expect Indian car sales to rise 2 per cent," Moody 's Investors Service said.
Commenting on global car sales , it said, "We expect global car unit sales to decline 2.5 per cent in 2020, narrowing from a 4.6 per cent drop in 2019, but worsening from the 0.9 per cent decline that we had previously projected for this year."
The ratings agency expects sales to rebound only modestly in 2021 with growth of 1.5 per cent.
"Our outlook on the sector remains negative," Moody 's Investors Service said.
It further noted, "We would consider returning to a stable outlook if we were to expect global light vehicle sales growth to recover to at least 1 per cent over the next 12 to 18 months. A stable outlook would also require improving pricing and at least stable capacity utilisation."
Moody 's also predicted car sales decline in China.
"In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, we expect car sales in China, which includes both passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, to fall 2.9 per cent this year, a meaningfully weaker performance than the 1 per cent growth we had previously projected," Moody 's said.
Elaborating on the market, it said that cautious consumers are steering clear of crowded areas, including car dealerships, while corporate demand for vehicles is weakening as broader economic uncertainties cause companies to scale back capital spending.
"Work stoppages and lower production levels because of government-mandated business days off, the reduced flow of migrant workers across China and disruptions in car -parts supply chains have lowered production levels," it added.
"As a result of these factors, we expect car sales to decline significantly year-over-year in February and March, with car makers likely to claw back only about half of the lost sales during the balance of the year. We expect Chinese car sales to swing back to growth in 2021, with a rebound of about 2.5 per cent," it further said.