There is no evidence of GDP overestimation

NEW DELHI: Concerns about the overestimation of India's GDP are unfounded, said the Economic Survey, ending the controversy over data caused by the former chief economic advisor.

The survey by the main economic advisor said that by using a careful statistical and econometric analysis that does justice to the importance of this issue, there was no evidence of an erroneous estimate of India's GDP growth. He said that countries differ from each other in various ways observed and not observed.

“Therefore, comparisons between countries are full of risks of incorrect inference due to several confounding factors that arise from such inherent differences. As a result, the analysis must be carried out carefully so that the correlation is distinguished from causation. ”

Models that incorrectly overestimate GDP growth by 2.77% for India after 2011 also underestimate GDP growth over the same period of time for another 51 countries in the 95 countries in the sample. between + 4% to -4.6%, including United Kingdom at + 1.6%, Germany at + 1.0%, Singapore at -2.3%, at -1.2% and Belgium at -1.3%.

Live plus Citing studies, the economy report card said that India's improvement in indicators such as access to nutrition and electricity could explain the higher growth rate of Indian GDP after the methodological change.

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