What do the growing tensions in the Middle East mean for the oil market?

NEW DELHI: The United States launched an air strike against the Iranian military commander on Friday, which raised fears of escalating conflicts in the Middle East That could damage crude oil supplies in the region.

Iran promised vengeance after a US air strike in Baghdad killed Qassim Suleimani, Tehran's most prominent military commander and the architect of its growing influence in the Middle East .

This is what analysts expect in terms of market response: Ole Hansen, Commodity Strategy Manager, Saxo Bank

* The US attack today at the heart of the Iranian leadership signals a significant escalation. However, the price increase seen today has not been driven by a supply disruption, as opposed to the Aramco attack.

* An increase in prices due to the interruption of supply instead of a demand-driven increase carries the risk of sending lower prices once the situation stabilizes. UBS

* While neither EE. UU. Neither Iran wants an escalation of tensions, nobody knows if Iran will respond and when it will respond. Considering these risks, the markets have added a risk premium for fear that tensions may increase.

* We assign a greater probability of new attacks on oil tankers, ships or energy infrastructure in the region than at the close of the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamic Republic also depends on the strait for its crude oil exports. Jim Ritterbusch, President of Ritterbusch and Associates

* The Middle East tensions They are increasing at a time when oil supplies were already shrinking in response to OPEC production cuts and rising expectations for improved oil demand from a Phase 1 trade agreement

* The desarrollos iraníes tienden a estimular una fuerte acumulación de inventario en las cadenas de distribución de productos crudos o (petroleros).

* The increase in excess productive capacity in Saudi Arabia could act as a buffer if global oil supplies are significantly affected. Paul Sheldon, Chief Geopolitical Risk Analyst, S&P Global Platts

* The chances of a broader conflict remain below 50%, although risks are entering new territory."

* Iranian reprisals could take the form of a rapid response by representatives against US allies and assets, but a broader response is likely to be calculated and indirectly more carefully in an effort to avoid direct conflict. Andy Lipow, president of consultants Lipow Oil Associates

* The oil market You are trying to assess the likelihood of this leading to a supply disruption. Iran, which has already seen its exports reduced to minimum volumes, has little to lose in the way of crude oil exports. Carlo Alberto De Casa, Chief Analyst, ActivTrades

* The reaction of oil to the US attack on Iran is not a big surprise.

* The outlook for oil is very bullish with this latest geopolitical tension putting the supply side at risk." Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA

* "Oil prices are skyrocketing as fears escalate that the Middle East region is about to see intensifying conflict in the region that could eventually end up in war."

* The assassination of a high Iranian commander is probably only the beginning of market responses. Benjamin Lu, analyst at Phillip Futures

* "Heightened militaristic actions will generate a risk premium for oil prices as traders deliberate escalating tensions in the Middle East ."

* The precios del petróleo parecen listos para negociarse al alza a medida que los mercados miran hacia niveles de oferta más ajustados y preocupaciones geopolíticas inminentes.

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